On Hoarding Toilet Paper
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Welcome to the new world. It is a world in which toilet paper is the most scarce (and perhaps more valuable?) resource. In response to fears about the COVID-19 pandemic, people around the world are hoarding toilet paper. It has even lead to violence.
I have just come from my traditional Saturday morning adventure to Costco. Normally, as an early riser, I am the first person in the store. But today was just nutso.
Not even the start of the line for toilet paper.
Not only was I greeted by a police officer before I joined a line around the block to even get into the store, there was a lineup the full length of the store to get toilet paper (limited – one pack per cardholding customer!). PSA: I already have more than enough toilet paper in my storage closet. So naturally this is my chance to observe consumer behaviour relative to the toilet paper panic.
Suffice it to say that I was not impressed by aggressive and rude behaviour in the store, and getting hit by other people’s carts trying to get their toilet paper (and other supplies). I also saw some poor, rattled Costco employee being yelled at by a customer about it, replying in a shaken tone, “It’s not me who’s limiting the toilet paper, its Costco’s policy!!!!!”
Slim pickings at the grocery stores.
Hoarding toilet paper is not a form of protection against the virus. Even if you do have COVID-19, your toilet paper needs are unlikely to dramatically change. On top of that, hoarding toilet paper seems comparatively less important to staples like food and water. Isolation timeframes are around 14 days, yet people are buying toilet paper like they’ll be holed up for 14 months.
Seems a bit irrational, right?
Tough love, but probably true.
The Toilet Paper Fiasco | Perceived Threat and Uncertainty
The virus seems really bad. People are dying, and it seems like we don’t have huge amount of control over it. It’s making a lot of people really nervous. And we tend to worry more about new threats than familiar ones. The reason is simple: when we don’t know as much about the new threat, it leaves us feeling vulnerable, without the right amount of knowledge to protect ourselves. How can COVID-19 be so bad as to be killing people and causing a nationwide quarantine in Italy, but I’m simply being told to wash my hands? This mismatch in information likely leads to cognitive dissonance – when you hold conflicting beliefs about the same thing. This leads to ‘mental discomfort’, and usually results in you changing one of the two conflicting beliefs.
Ex. The news is telling me that this pandemic is really bad. But the officials are telling me everything is fine and to wash my hands.
(Spoiler: there is a third option - a middle ground. Accept that there is uncertainty, the situation is evolving, stay informed, and stay prepared in advance a reasonable amount of time – which probably doesn’t need to include mass amounts of toilet paper).
Virus vs. Viral
We are highly influenced by the behaviours of people around us. So if you see people around you panicking, well, seems like compelling evidence that we should panic too. I mean, imagine seeing this:
Time to panic?
When we are stressed, our ability to reason is more limited. We are more apt to being influenced by whatever everyone else is doing. This is what Roger Kasperson and colleagues call the “social amplification of risk,” meaning that when we only have so much cognitive space (like in times of stress), we direct our attention towards what others are doing. That’s why it’s not surprising at all to see fear contagion taking hold even more aggressively than the virus itself. We are especially vulnerable to fear contagion in an age so dominated by social media (where the behaviours of others are transmitted virtually… you know, unlike the COVID-19 virus itself!)
Toilet paper is symbolic of a staple you acquire in a panic. It’s in large packaging, you will always need it, it doesn’t expire, you don’t need to mix it with anything else for it to ‘work’ (like… the idea of eating just a can of tomatoes doesn’t sound that great to me). The thinking is pretty minimal. Is this something I will need? Yes. Therefore let me get after it before someone else takes it all.
According to Andy Yap, professor of organizational behaviour at INSEAD business school in Singapore, people lining up just to get into the store to buy toilet paper might have no idea why they are buying toilet paper. They could be so completely influenced by seeing others buying mass quantities that they might be scared it will become scarce and they will miss out.
Maintaining a Sense of Control by Hoarding Toilet Paper
One of the challenges of COVID-19 is that viruses are very tiny and it’s hard to see them (obviously) and there have been some testing and detection confusions, especially in the US. What is easy to identify, however, is your own stock of supplies should you need to be isolated. Not having much control over your exposure to COVID-19, save for full self-isolation, can be scary. Taking some action, like buying a bunch of toilet paper – though not necessarily directly addressing the source of anxiety – can ease the sense of unease. As Paul Marsden, a consumer psychologist at the University of the Arts London, put it, “It's about 'taking back control' in a world where you feel out of control."
Scarcity Bias
The scarcity bias refers to when the subjective value of something rises just because it’s perceived as scarce. Research has shown that more people choose a good when it’s perceived as scarce. Is all the toilet paper gone? Yes! So now I want it more. Not only that, we tend to see this scarce thing as more valuable. We see this in action as people are risking fines for violence just to get their hands on toilet paper.
What are they going to do with all this toilet paper in jail!
There you have it – some of the psychology behind the toilet paper fiasco, digested. The bottom line is we’re not always as good as we think we are when it comes to assessing risks.
However, as we are all increasingly encouraged to social distance and self-isolate, I would encourage you to also think of your behavioural and mental health (a great resource on the topic from the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services can be found here).
Wash your hands!
Love,
